More Canadian employers seen hiring in 2013 first quarter: Manpower

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian employers have a brighter outlook for adding jobs in the new year, with transportation and public utility companies the most bullish, but a cautious mood on the economy still prevails, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

In a quarterly survey of more than 1,900 Canadian employers by staffing firm Manpower Inc, a net 13 percent expected to add new jobs in the first quarter of 2013.

The seasonally adjusted figure is up from 11 percent in the previous quarter, but marginally less than 14 percent a year ago.

"The mood out there is they're cautious. They're not necessarily optimistic," said Byrne Luft, a vice president with Manpower Canada, a unit of the Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based staff provider.

The survey measures the difference between employers who say they will add jobs and those planning to cut positions.

Seven percent of firms expected to trim jobs next quarter, while 78 percent planned to keep staffing levels unchanged, with 2 percent of companies unsure of their hiring plans.

Manpower's survey follows Canada's report on Friday that the country created 59,300 net new jobs in November - far above expectations and considered a surprising comeback during a period of sluggish economic growth.

The Manpower survey showed a significant turn in hiring intentions from the fourth quarter, when the construction and education sectors were among the only industries to show a net increase in hiring plans.

"There are a lot of vacancies today in Canada - over 300,000. It just goes to show you the gap we're seeing in Canada, as far as the skills we have available or the jobs that are open, that gap is widening and it's problematic," said Luft.

"We're really starting to see companies go abroad to hire outside of Canada to fill those vacancies with what they call 'economic immigrants.'"

RESOURCE COMPANIES EXPECT LESS HIRING

Transportation and public utility companies are the most bullish about the new year, with employers reporting a net employment outlook of 21 percent, up from 16 percent the previous quarter and 11 percent a year ago. Luft noted hiring in the utilities sector generally spikes in the first quarter because of the weather.

The resource sector was the only industry where there was a marked decline in companies planning to hire. Luft attributed much of the change to falling energy prices. Only 8 percent of firms were planning to add jobs, down from 17 percent a quarter earlier and 18 percent a year ago.

U.S. light crude oil futures are off more than 13 percent so far this year and down more than 6 percent this quarter.

More companies in services, construction, education, finance, insurance and real estate also expect to hire next quarter compared with the last quarter as well as a year ago.

"Finance and insurance in Canada is very strong. ... Our clients are constantly hiring in that space. A lot of it, too, is that they have positions they can't fill," said Luft.

Manufacturing companies, wholesale and retail trade firms and the public administration sector were steady in their hiring expectations from a quarter earlier, but plan to add fewer workers than a year ago.

In particular, 6 percent of manufacturers of non-durable goods plan to add new jobs next quarter, up from 5 percent last quarter, but down from 13 percent a year earlier.

Read More..

Asia stocks wane as US budget talks drag on

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian stock markets lost some steam Tuesday as efforts by U.S. leaders to reach a budget deal before the year's end appeared deadlocked and fears lingered that a leadership change in Italy could derail Europe's efforts to tackle its financial crisis.

Markets in Asia appeared to take in stride news that HSBC, the British banking giant, will pay $1.9 billion to settle a money-laundering probe by federal and state authorities in the United States. HSBC shares rose 0.3 percent in Hong Kong.

Jackson Wong, vice president at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong, said investors were prepared for the bad news after rumors of a settlement leaked out Friday. Helping to calm nerves was HSBC's sale last Wednesday of its 15.6 percent stake in China's Ping An Insurance to a Thai conglomerate for about $9.4 billion.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell less than 0.1 percent to 9,529.48, with Japanese utilities coming under pressure a day after a team of geologists said that a nuclear power plant in western Japan is likely located on an active fault. Japanese guidelines prohibit nuclear facilities above active faults.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. fell 1.4 percent and Kansai Electric Power Co. shed 3.7 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.2 percent to 22,322.70 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.3 percent to 1,962.30. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4 percent to 4,576. Benchmarks in Singapore and Indonesia also rose while New Zealand, Taiwan and mainland China fell.

Investors also got a slight jolt after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, who has been credited with restoring confidence in Italy's economy, announced he will resign by year's end. Monti said over the weekend that he found it impossible to lead after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's party, Parliament's largest, dropped its support for the government.

Analysts fear Monti's unexpected resignation could spark a new round of Italian political turmoil and slow efforts to get one of Europe's largest economies back in shape.

Anxiety was also growing as talks drag on between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers over a way to avoid the "fiscal cliff," a series of tax hikes and spending cuts that will come into effect Jan. 1 if no agreement is in place to cut the budget deficit.

Stocks inched higher on Wall Street after a strong sales report by McDonald's boosted confidence in the consumer spending in the world's largest economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.1 percent to 13,169.88. The S&P rose 0.03 percent to 1,418.55. The Nasdaq composite index rose 0.3 percent to 2,986.96.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was up 6 cents to $85.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 37 cents to finish at $85.56 per barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

In currencies, the euro rose to $1.2948 from $1.2938 in New York on Monday. The dollar rose slightly to 82.35 yen from 82.33 yen.

Read More..

Japan's LDP, partner on track for big election win: surveys

TOKYO/TAKATSUKI (Reuters) - Conservative former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's opposition Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) and its smaller ally are heading for a resounding victory in Sunday's election, winning more than 300 seats in parliament's 480-member lower house, media surveys showed on Tuesday.

Abe, 58, who resigned abruptly as premier in 2007 after a troubled year in office, is pushing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for more powerful monetary stimulus and promises to boost public works to rev up a stagnant economy.

Abe, the grandson of a wartime cabinet minister who became prime minister after World War Two, also favors a tough stance against China in a territorial row and loosening the limits of Japan's 65-year-old pacifist constitution on the military.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which surged to power in 2009 for the first time, could get fewer than 80 seats at the election, the papers said.

The conservative Sankei, whose poll was based on a smaller sample, said an LDP-New Komeito party coalition could even win the two-thirds majority needed to over-ride the upper house, where no party has a majority and which can block legislation.

That could potentially break the political deadlock that has plagued successive governments since 2007. But the paper warned that almost 40 percent of those surveyed had not decided how to vote.

DISILLUSIONED VOTERS

Many voters have become disillusioned with the ruling Democrats who promised to break the "iron triangle" of cozy ties between big business, bureaucrats and lawmakers, nurtured during the LDP's nearly unbroken half a century rule.

But while voters are returning to the long-dominant LDP, there is little tangible enthusiasm for Japan's main opposition.

"I feel betrayed by the DPJ which promised to change so much, but achieved so little. They came across as immature, disorganized and ineffective," said Junko Makita, 59, a housewife in Takatsuki, a city of 360,000 just outside western metropolis of Osaka.

"That said, I'm not putting my hopes up too high for the LDP either, but at least they are more experienced," she said.

Takatsuki is a microcosm of Japan's fragmented politics, where a DPJ incumbent is fighting a losing battle against a well known local doctor on the LDP's list and a young candidate from the right-leaning Japan Restoration Party.

The area is the power base for the Japan Restoration Party, founded by outspoken Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, and polls suggest it could capture as many as 50 seats after it joined forces with an octogenarian nationalist Shintaro Ishihara.

A solid LDP-New Komeito lower house majority would make any formal coalition with the new Restoration party less likely, but a strong result could make it a force to contend with in future.

BANK OF JAPAN UNDER PRESSURE

Reviving Asia's second largest economy, which is slipping into its fourth recession since 2000, is a major election issue and has seen hawkish Abe pressure the BOJ for "unlimited" easing to achieve a 2 percent inflation, double the bank's target.

"I'm graduating next year, so I want politicians to boost our economy, particularly companies like Panasonic or Sharp which are in a very bad shape," said Takashi Nishida, 21, electronics student at Kyoto's Ritsumeikan University.

Japan's central bank will likely ease monetary policy next week, sources say, as looming risks such as the potential fallout from the U.S. fiscal cliff and weak Chinese growth cloud the outlook for an economy already seen as in recession.

The most likely option is for the central bank to expand its asset-buying and lending program, currently at 91 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion), by another 5-10 trillion yen, at the meeting on December 19-20, sources familiar with its thinking have said.

For now, many in the central bank want to hold off on any new initiatives unless the U.S. Federal Reserve, which holds its policy-setting meeting this week, surprises markets with a bigger-than-expected stimulus and triggers a sharp yen rise.

Abe has also tapped a nationalist sentiment in Japan to win voters and has promised to get tougher with Beijing in a territorial row and to loosen the pacifist constitution.

The Philippines said on Monday that a stronger Japan would act as a counterbalance to the military rise of China, something that is worrying smaller Asian nations as territorial disputes heat up in the region.

Right-leaning parties' tough talk resonates with many voters, after a simmering dispute with China over a chain of East China Sea islets flared up earlier this year, culminating in anti-Japanese protests and boycotts of Japanese products.

"The most important thing is to show that Japan has its voice, show to the world what is our stance" said Isao Habe, 56, a manager at an electronics maker in Takatsuki, who plans to vote for the LDP candidate.

"I want the government to be more assertive."

Revising the pacifist constitution would require a two-thirds majority in both houses as well as a majority in a public referendum, but changes to how it is interpreted are easier to accomplish.

Read More..

2013 rings in more dovish Fed and maybe some dissent

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve  may tip toward doing even more to boost the U.S. economy in 2013 as two outspoken advocates for a super-easy monetary stance rotate into voting spots on its policy panel.

The annual shuffle of voters also raises the possibility of more dissents, analysts said, but not enough to offset the small but noticeable dovish shift.

Incoming voters Charles Evans, who leads the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, and Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed have argued that the central bank needs to go beyond its already aggressive easing of monetary policy to bring down unemployment.

They are also at the forefront of efforts to adopt numerical thresholds for unemployment and inflation that would underscore the Fed's willingness to keep policy easy for a long, long time.

The new lineup, which will be in place for the Fed's first meeting of 2013 in late January, "tilts slightly more in favor of further accommodation," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays, in New York.

The Fed has kept interest rates near zero since December 2008 and expects to keep them there until at least mid-2015. It has also bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities and is expected to announce more purchases on Wednesday after a two-day meeting.

Next year, it will wrestle with the question of just how far it should go.

GEORGE TO TAKE UP BATON OF DISSENT?

Each January, four regional Fed bank presidents rotate into voting spots on the policy committee and four rotate out.

This year, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker made his discomfort with the central bank's easy stance known with dissents at every meeting.

He will be rotating off the voting roster, as will Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who next year will cast her first votes since succeeding Thomas Hoenig in the job in 2011, could take up the baton of hawkish dissent.

While she has been less openly critical of current policy than Hoenig, who used all of his final votes to dissent against Fed easing, George has sounded a couple of skeptical notes.

"Only time will tell if George will assume the role of 2013 voting hawk," said Neal Soss, Credit Suisse economist in New York.

St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard, who has said he would have voted against the central bank's decision in September to embark on a new round of asset purchases, is also joining the voting ranks. In his last go-round in 2010, he voted with the consensus at every meeting.

"Bullard is a wild card, and so that might make the votes a little less predictable than they are in the current lineup," said JPMorgan's Michael Feroli.

And Evans could cast a dovish dissent - as he did during his last voting stint in 2011 - should the Fed pare asset purchases too early for his taste, some analysts said.

To be sure, the economic recovery does not appear to be gaining enough traction for the Fed to cut back any time soon.

In a Reuters poll on Friday, the median forecast of 32 economists was for the Fed to buy a total of $515 billion of Treasuries as part of the expanded purchase program expected to be announced this week.

"Given the environment that we are looking at ... I don't know that any of the hawks will have a strong argument because growth is likely to be slowing, and inflation is cooling," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo, in Charlotte, N.C.

WILL EVANS, ROSENGREN HELP ON THRESHOLDS?

Meanwhile, officials continue to debate whether to adopt numerical thresholds for unemployment and inflation to help guide their decision on when to eventually raise rates.

Both Evans and Rosengren have said the Fed should keep rates low until the jobless rate falls to at least 6.5 percent unless inflation heats up. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent in November from 7.9 percent in October, but only because thousands of Americans stopped looking for work.

It is unclear how far Evans' and Rosengren's status as voters will nudge the needle for the committee as a whole, although 33 of 55 economists polled on Friday said the Fed would eventually adopt thresholds.

"Thresholds will be a front-burner issue and will likely get done in 2013," said Eric Stein, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, in Boston.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chair Janet Yellen have both already indicated support for the threshold idea.

But Bernanke probably would want broad backing for such a significant change in the Fed's policy framework. When officials adopted an inflation goal of 2 percent this past January, all regional Fed bank chiefs were afforded a say.

"To make credible long-run programs, (Bernanke) wants a broader consensus, not just the voting members," said former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Read More..

Brent eases to near $107 as US, Italy rattle investors

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude edged down towards $107 a barrel on Tuesday as a stalemate over fiscal talks in the United States and political uncertainty in Italy rattled investors, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported prices.

Investors shied away from riskier assets as U.S. politicians squabbled over ways to reduce debt, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti's decision to resign early raised fears that the country could stray from economic reforms needed to steer itself out of the financial crisis.

Brent crude edged down 3 cents to $107.30 a barrel by 0506 GMT. U.S. crude was at $85.63, up 7 cents.

"There is a bearish tone in the market going into the year end with nothing much to support oil prices except geopolitical risks," Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp said,

"The focus is on the fiscal cliff," he said, adding that the bad news from Italy also weighed on oil prices.

More talks were held on Monday between the White House and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's office to break the "fiscal cliff" stalemate, although neither side showed any public signs that they were ready to give ground.

In Italy, borrowing costs soared and share prices tumbled on Monday as the markets took fright at Monti's announcement that he will step down early.

The news came just as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Monday that economic growth in Italy and China may be about to turn up.

China's crude imports rose in November while refinery runs reached a record of more than 10.1 million barrels a day (bpd), although foreign trade data disappointed.

"Despite China's improving economy, prices could come under some pressure today as fresh uncertainty over Europe tempers sentiment," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Yet, tensions in the Middle East that threaten to disrupt oil supply have supported prices throughout the year. The region is facing fresh unrest in Egypt, fighting in Syria and global pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear programme.

"The geopolitical risk is higher than ever," Nunan said. "It's going to be nasty when Damascus falls."

Traders also will be keeping a close watch on any changes in OPEC supply as the group meets in Vienna on Wednesday, while scouring weekly U.S. oil inventories data to be released over the next two days.

"The only thing that could come out of OPEC would be bearish as most people agree they have to address oversupply next year," Nunan said.

OPEC members collectively are producing about 1 million barrels a day of crude more than needed, swelling oil stocks at a time of weak demand, Iranian OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said.

The 12-member group is expected to stick with its target of 30 million bpd when it meets on Wednesday.

In the United States, commercial crude oil stockpiles were forecast to have fallen last week amid high refinery demand, while gasoline inventories were expected to rise, a preliminary Reuters poll of five analysts showed.

Read More..