Aboriginal leaders to launch national protest in Ottawa today demanding change

OTTAWA - Aboriginal leaders are set to march through the streets of Ottawa today after meeting with a chief who is on a hunger-strike.
The leaders are taking part in a national protest march and rally organized by the movement dubbed Idle No More, which opposes the Harper government's omnibus budget legislation, Bill C-45.
On the eve of the protest, Attawapiskat First Nation Chief Theresa Spence repeated her call for a meeting with the prime minister and Canada's governor general.
Spence, who started a hunger strike this month, issued an open letter yesterday to Stephen Harper and Gov. Gen. David Johnston.
In it, she urges them to embark on a national discussion about the state of poverty among First Nations communities.
Spence says many communities face impoverished conditions, despite assurances from the government that progress is being made to alleviate poverty.
"Land and natural resources continue to be reaped by the federal and provincial governments through taxation of corporate resource companies with little compensation to First Nations for use of our traditional territories," Spence wrote.
"Trilateral discussions and financial action plans must be committed to in order to alleviate the existing state of poverty."
Spence said this week she has been growing weaker after living mainly on water and fish broth since Dec 11.
A spokesman for Aboriginal Affairs Minister John Duncan voiced frustration Thursday at being unable to speak with Spence about her concerns.
"Since she began her hunger strike the minister has expressed his concern for Chief Spence’s health and he has indicated several times his willingness to meet with or talk to her," said Jason MacDonald.
"Unfortunately he has been unable to reach the Chief, and her colleagues have been unwilling or unable to share an alternate phone number where she might be reached."
Assembly of First Nations National Chief Shawn Atleo and up to five other chiefs are expected to take part in today's march and rally, along with a number of opposition politicians.
There will also be protests in a number of other Canadian cities.
Protests and marches have been held country-wide in recent weeks to demand the Conservative government reverse legislation that First Nations say will affect treaties and traditional land use.

Read More..

Mandatory minimums may face tough year in the courts with various challenges

TORONTO - The coming year could bring some clarity to the murky legal waters of the federal Conservatives' law-and-order agenda, particularly mandatory minimum sentences, even as new complications are added to the mix.
One of the government's omnibus crime bills churned through the courts in 2012, with several planks falling victim to declarations of unconstitutionality. Meanwhile, a new slew of provisions entered the fray in the form of a second omnibus bill.
Major players in the legal community are predicting 2013 will bring even more questions about the constitutional validity of the two bills, both heavy on mandatory minimum penalties and tougher rules for violent offenders.
But at least some of the questions already raised will be answered by Ontario's highest court early next year as it is set to convene a special five-judge panel for February to rule on mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes.
Several different judges in Ontario this year had to consider the constitutionality of those firearm laws. Their differing decisions left a fragmented landscape. Hearing six of those cases at the same time gives the Court of Appeal for Ontario the opportunity to deliver a uniform ruling.
The mandatory minimums were upheld in most of the cases the panel will hear. The case in which the law was struck down is that of Leroy Smickle — a man who very well demonstrates the problems with the legislation, said his lawyer.
The "very foolish" Smickle was alone in his boxers in his cousin's apartment posing with a loaded handgun while taking pictures of himself to post on his Facebook page, the judge found.
Unbeknownst to him, members of the Toronto police Emergency Task Force were amassing outside to execute a search warrant in relation to Smickle's cousin, who they believed had illegal firearms. Smickle was caught red handed.
Ontario Superior Court Judge Anne Molloy convicted Smickle of possessing a loaded illegal gun, but found that sending the first-time offender to prison for three years was cruel and unusual punishment. She struck down the mandatory minimum, declaring it unconstitutional.
The government is appealing, and at the special hearing in February both federal and provincial Crowns are set to make arguments.
The Department of Justice said no one was available for an interview, and sent a statement touting its tough-on-crime agenda.
But critics of mandatory minimum sentences say they don't actually help reduce crime and do more harm than good.
"In terms of reducing crime they're usually thought of as having a possible general deterrent effect," said Anthony Doob, a criminology professor at the University of Toronto.
"There's been so much research on this that I don't think that's really a question anymore. Anybody who looks seriously at the effect of mandatory minimums...would know that they're not going to reduce crime in that way."
Having mandatory minimum sentences means more people will end up in prison, and putting a first-time offender through the paces of prison culture can leave them at the end of their sentence more likely to re-offend, Doob suggested.
"So what you may be doing in these circumstances... is in the long term an increase in crime," he said.
Mandatory minimums are nothing new — both Liberal and Conservative governments have enacted them. Commissions looking at the issue going back several decades have called for mandatory minimums to be abolished.
Court decisions striking them down aren't new either. One of the biggest cases was from 1987, when the Supreme Court of Canada struck down a seven-year minimum sentence for importing a narcotic.
But this year saw a torrent of new legal challenges as the provisions from the 2008 legislation finally made their way through the backlog of the courts.
And those court delays will only get worse with the flood of new mandatory minimums, suggested Rick Woodburn, the president of the Canadian Association of Crown Counsel.
He wouldn't comment on the validity of the legislation, but said "a bill like this increases the workload."
Crowns typically offer plea bargains with conditional sentences to less serious offenders, but with more lenient sentences for certain crimes gone, guilty pleas — which save court time and resources — are drying up, Woodburn said.
"We're seeing that the delays are starting to get longer and longer in a very short period of time. There's no coincidence that delays across the country can be directly linked to the omnibus bill."
Another frequent criticism is that mandatory minimums strip discretion from judges, who know all the facts of a case and are the best equipped to determine an appropriate sentence. It's a blunt instrument to deal with a complex problem, said Smickle's lawyer, Dirk Derstine.
"Our judges know perfectly well that possession of firearms is a very, very serious thing," he said. "Really, what this indicates is a lack of trust in the judiciary."
Derstine also represents Hussein Nur in another case that will go before the Appeal Court panel in February. In that case, which came a few months before the Smickle decision was issued, the trial judge found merit to the constitutional challenge, but dismissed it.
Superior Court Judge Michael Code found that there were many circumstances in which a three-year sentence could end up being cruel and unusual, such as in the case of John Snobelen, a former Ontario cabinet minister who never got around to registering a gun in Canada after buying it among the contents of a ranch in the U.S. His wife told police about its existence during marital difficulties.
But the judge said the Crown, as it did in the Snobelen case, can decide to proceed to a summary conviction, which is treated less seriously and with less jail time than indictable offences. Snobelen was granted an absolute discharge.
That option in the firearms offence saves the law from being declared unconstitutional, Code said. But, he warned, "one unwise Crown election" may invalidate the whole sentencing scheme.
Nur also argued that the difference in penalties for summary conviction and indictment is arbitrary and Code agreed.
The government raised the mandatory minimum sentence for possession of a loaded prohibited firearm from one year to three years as part of the 2008 omnibus bill. But it didn't change the sentencing options for the same charge under a summary conviction.
The maximum sentence on a summary conviction for the crime remained one year. That has left a two-year gap that "makes no rational sense," Code said. It appears as though it happened by mere oversight, not by some advertent decision, he said.
He found that Nur's charter challenge of arbitrariness had merit, saying the gap "emasculates" the sentencing provisions and "will inevitably lead to unfit sentences" for less serious firearm cases. But Code found that he had to dismiss the challenge on a technicality.
In Quebec, the provincial bar association launched a legal challenge last month seeking to strike down sections of the 2012 omnibus bill involving mandatory minimums. The bar association said mandatory minimums don't protect the public and represent an unconstitutional interference from one branch of government, the legislature, in the business of another, the judiciary.
There will be more challenges to the new sentencing laws in the new year, professors, lawyers and other legal experts predict. University of Ottawa professor Carissima Mathen suggested that minimum sentences for some drug laws that came into effect this year are vulnerable.
Some experts say the new provisions mean that someone growing six marijuana plants in their own home could be sentenced to six months, but a person growing the same amount in a rental unit could get nine months.
Enacting mandatory minimums is an easy way to appear tough on crime, critics say.
"The reality is, if you don't care about sentencing policy but want to show some activity...you can pick a random offence and give it a mandatory minimum," Doob said.
Francoise Boivin, the NDP justice critic in Ottawa, said many problems will arise from the fact that the raft of new sentencing laws were enacted as part of omnibus bills.
"This is a huge, huge overhaul of the whole system to really implement your ideology on the issue," she said. "It's scary to know that you've changed so many laws — and not simple laws. Each one would have deserved a long and hard look. You're talking about child pornography in one minute and then you're talking about terrorism the second half of the meeting. It's completely nuts."
Many of the constitutional challenges, including the one being heard en masse in Ontario in February, are expected to eventually be heard by the Supreme Court of Canada.

Read More..

The Note's Must-Reads for Friday, December 21, 2012

The Note's Must-Reads are a round-up of today's political headlines and stories from ABC News and the top U.S. newspapers. Posted Monday through Friday right here at www.abcnews.com
Compiled by ABC News' Amanda VanAllen, Ben Waldron and Jordan Mazza
COREY BOOKER ABC News' Sarah Parnass and Shushannah Walshe: " Newark Mayor Cory Booker to Explore Run for Senate in 2014? Popular Newark Mayor Cory Booker is "exploring the possibility" of running for the U.S. Senate rather than governor, the social-media-savvy Democrat posted on his website today.
FISCAL CLIFF/PLAN B The Hills' Russell Berman: " House GOP pulls 'Plan B'; Boehner says 'cliff' up to Dems" Short of votes, House Republicans pulled Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B" tax bill from the floor late Thursday, testing the Ohio Republican's hold on his conference and throwing year-end efforts to avoid the fiscal cliff into further chaos. Party leaders had voiced confidence throughout the day they had enough Republican votes to pass the measure over unified Democratic opposition, but amid mounting defections, they announced shortly before 8 p.m. that the vote would be canceled.
The Los Angeles Times' Michael A. Memoli: " House Republicans call off vote on 'Plan B' fiscal cliff plan" House Republican leaders abruptly called off a vote Thursday night on their "Plan B" tax proposal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, which ran into stiff resistance from the party's right flank. A tight vote on a preliminary measure that had been expected to pass with ease led House Speaker John A. Boehner and his lieutenants to cancel the vote on legislation that would have extended the George W. Bush-era tax rates only for those making less than $1 million.
The Washington Times' Stephen Dinan: " Boehner's 'Plan B' to avoid 'fiscal cliff' ? fails to win ? over GOP" House Republicans' "Plan B" to avert the "fiscal cliff" came crashing down Thursday night after party leaders realized they didn't have the votes to pass it, and pulled it from the floor - leaving the country poised on the edge of massive tax increases and spending cuts. House lawmakers are now headed home for Christmas, though they vowed to return if there is any progress on talks.
The New York Times' Jonathan Weisman: " Boehner Cancels Tax Vote in Face of G.O.P Revolt" Speaker John A. Boehner's effort to pass fallback legislation to avert a fiscal crisis in less than two weeks collapsed Thursday night in an embarrassing defeat after conservative Republicans refused to support legislation that would allow taxes to rise on the most affluent households in the country. House Republican leaders abruptly canceled a vote on the bill after they failed to rally enough votes for passage in an emergency meeting about 8 p.m.
The Washington Post's Paul Kane, Ed O'Keefe and Lori Montgomery: " How Boehner's Plan B for the 'fiscal cliff' began and fell apart " John A. Boehner's week on the brink ended in a painfully familiar place. It began last week when President Obama delivered a stern message to the House speaker: If there was going to be a deal to tame the nation's debt, it had to happen now. If they went over the "fiscal cliff," it would only become harder to reach a deal, Obama said.
Politico's Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: " Boehner's Toughest Hour" Things were so bad for Speaker John Boehner Thursday night, support for his Plan B tax bill so diminished, the limits of his power with his own party laid bare, that he stood in front of the House Republican Conference and recited the Serenity Prayer. "God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference."
USA Today's Susan Davis: "Speaker Boehner plan to avert 'fiscal cliff' fails." House Speaker John Boehner was handed a stunning defeat late Thursday by members of his own party who refused to support his "Plan B" to avoid the year-end "fiscal cliff" that threatens to send the economy in to a recession.
BENGHAZI The Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon and Siobhan Gorman: "In Benghazi Hearings, Partisan Politics Play Out" Congressional hearings to help unravel details behind the September consulate attack in Benghazi, Libya, morphed into a political face-off Thursday as Democrats and Republicans sought to position themselves and their parties for the months and years ahead-possibly including 2016, the next presidential election year.
ABC NEWS VIDEOS " Fiscal Cliff Countdown Inches Closer to Cut-Off Date"
BOOKMARKS The Note:  The Must-Reads Online:  Top Line Webcast (12noon EST M-F):  ABC News Politics:  The Political Punch (Jake Tapper):  George's Bottom Line (George Stephanopoulos):  Follow ABC News on Twitter:  ABC News Mobile:  ABC News app on your iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad:

Read More..

UK banking review urges 'electrified' ringfence

LONDON (AP) -- The U.K. government needs to get tougher in its proposals to isolate banks' high-street activities from their riskier business, Britain's Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards says.
The commission reported Friday that the government's proposals for a "ring-fence" to protect retail banks needs to be "electrified."
Commission chairman Andrew Tyrie says that would mean giving regulators the power to force a complete separation of a lender's retail business from its investment banking. Risky investments including exotic derivatives undermined banks' stability in 2008, prompting taxpayer bailouts of two big U.K. banks.
Tyrie says the government's proposals would be "tested and challenged by the banks". The report will be a disappointment for Treasury chief George Osborne, who had warned it against proposing significant changes to the banking reform bill.

Read More..

Iraq's Sunni leaders accuse PM of crackdown

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's Sunni leaders accused Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of a political crackdown after troops raided the finance minister's office and home, threatening to reignite a crisis a year after the last American troops left.
The raids and detention of the Sunni minister's staff came hours after President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd who often mediated among the fractious Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish blocs, left for Germany after suffering a stroke that could end his moderating influence in Iraqi politics.
Politicians and authorities gave conflicting accounts of the incident, but it was reminiscent of a year ago when Iraqi authorities sought the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi and his bodyguards, accusing them of running death squads just as U.S. troops packed up.
Finance Minister Rafie al-Esawi, a member of the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc, said late on Thursday that more than 100 bodyguards and staff were snatched illegally by militias, and blamed Maliki for orchestrating the raids to target opponents.
Maliki's office said only six bodyguards were arrested under counter terrorism laws.
The Hashemi case plunged the fragile power-sharing deal among Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims and Kurds into turmoil, with Sunni politicians boycotting parliament. Hashemi later fled to Turkey and was sentenced to death in absentia.
"This confirms there is continued systematic targeting of the Sunni symbols and leaders participating in the political process," Iraqiya leaders said in a statement.
They called on their supporters to protest peacefully after Friday prayers. Esawi said lawmakers would seek a vote of no confidence in Maliki.
A U.S. embassy spokesman said: "Any actions from any party that subverts the rule of law or provokes ethnic or sectarian tension risks undermining the significant progress Iraq has made toward peace and stability."
Ali al-Moussawi, Maliki's media advisor, said the judiciary had issued arrest warrants for six of the minister's bodyguards and accused rival politicians of trying to stir tensions by linking the case to the premier.
"The law and judiciary for them have no value, they see only political differences," Moussawi said. "They blame Maliki for everything."
STEADYING HAND GONE?
Violence in Iraq is down from the days of intercommunal slaughter that erupted soon after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.
But many Sunni leaders feel they have been sidelined from power-sharing by Maliki as he consolidates his authority under a constitution that grants the premier wide powers.
Talabani, 79, a former guerrilla who was admitted to hospital on Monday, had often mediated among Shi'ites, Sunnis and Kurds, and in the growing dispute over oil between Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan region.
His illness has fuelled concerns of a succession crisis and tension between Arabs and ethnic Kurds spilling into violence.
Maliki, an ally of Iran who spent years fighting against Saddam's rule, is struggling with Sunni, Kurdish and even Shi'ite rivals over the power-sharing agreement meant to balance posts among religious sects and ethnic Kurds.
The PM's rivals tried earlier this year to organize a vote of no confidence against him. It failed because Talabani did not back the vote and because of splits among Maliki's foes.
Before the raids, most politicians were publicly wishing Talabani a speedy recovery. But behind the scenes, some senior Sunni political leaders suggested they may present their own candidate for the presidency in a challenge to the Kurds.
Under the constitution, parliament elects a new president and a vice president takes over in the interim. The power-sharing deal calls for the presidency to go to a Kurd while two vice president posts are shared by a Sunni and a Shi'ite.
The Sunni vice president, Hashemi, is a fugitive. The other vice president is Khudair al-Khuzaie, seen by some as a hardline Shi'ite from Maliki's alliance.
Among Kurds, former Kurdistan Prime Minister Barham Salih is favoured as a leader with ties across Iraq's sectarian divide. But there could also be a struggle within Iraqi Kurdistan, where Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party shares power with the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Read More..

More Canadian employers seen hiring in 2013 first quarter: Manpower

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian employers have a brighter outlook for adding jobs in the new year, with transportation and public utility companies the most bullish, but a cautious mood on the economy still prevails, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

In a quarterly survey of more than 1,900 Canadian employers by staffing firm Manpower Inc, a net 13 percent expected to add new jobs in the first quarter of 2013.

The seasonally adjusted figure is up from 11 percent in the previous quarter, but marginally less than 14 percent a year ago.

"The mood out there is they're cautious. They're not necessarily optimistic," said Byrne Luft, a vice president with Manpower Canada, a unit of the Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based staff provider.

The survey measures the difference between employers who say they will add jobs and those planning to cut positions.

Seven percent of firms expected to trim jobs next quarter, while 78 percent planned to keep staffing levels unchanged, with 2 percent of companies unsure of their hiring plans.

Manpower's survey follows Canada's report on Friday that the country created 59,300 net new jobs in November - far above expectations and considered a surprising comeback during a period of sluggish economic growth.

The Manpower survey showed a significant turn in hiring intentions from the fourth quarter, when the construction and education sectors were among the only industries to show a net increase in hiring plans.

"There are a lot of vacancies today in Canada - over 300,000. It just goes to show you the gap we're seeing in Canada, as far as the skills we have available or the jobs that are open, that gap is widening and it's problematic," said Luft.

"We're really starting to see companies go abroad to hire outside of Canada to fill those vacancies with what they call 'economic immigrants.'"

RESOURCE COMPANIES EXPECT LESS HIRING

Transportation and public utility companies are the most bullish about the new year, with employers reporting a net employment outlook of 21 percent, up from 16 percent the previous quarter and 11 percent a year ago. Luft noted hiring in the utilities sector generally spikes in the first quarter because of the weather.

The resource sector was the only industry where there was a marked decline in companies planning to hire. Luft attributed much of the change to falling energy prices. Only 8 percent of firms were planning to add jobs, down from 17 percent a quarter earlier and 18 percent a year ago.

U.S. light crude oil futures are off more than 13 percent so far this year and down more than 6 percent this quarter.

More companies in services, construction, education, finance, insurance and real estate also expect to hire next quarter compared with the last quarter as well as a year ago.

"Finance and insurance in Canada is very strong. ... Our clients are constantly hiring in that space. A lot of it, too, is that they have positions they can't fill," said Luft.

Manufacturing companies, wholesale and retail trade firms and the public administration sector were steady in their hiring expectations from a quarter earlier, but plan to add fewer workers than a year ago.

In particular, 6 percent of manufacturers of non-durable goods plan to add new jobs next quarter, up from 5 percent last quarter, but down from 13 percent a year earlier.

Read More..

Asia stocks wane as US budget talks drag on

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian stock markets lost some steam Tuesday as efforts by U.S. leaders to reach a budget deal before the year's end appeared deadlocked and fears lingered that a leadership change in Italy could derail Europe's efforts to tackle its financial crisis.

Markets in Asia appeared to take in stride news that HSBC, the British banking giant, will pay $1.9 billion to settle a money-laundering probe by federal and state authorities in the United States. HSBC shares rose 0.3 percent in Hong Kong.

Jackson Wong, vice president at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong, said investors were prepared for the bad news after rumors of a settlement leaked out Friday. Helping to calm nerves was HSBC's sale last Wednesday of its 15.6 percent stake in China's Ping An Insurance to a Thai conglomerate for about $9.4 billion.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell less than 0.1 percent to 9,529.48, with Japanese utilities coming under pressure a day after a team of geologists said that a nuclear power plant in western Japan is likely located on an active fault. Japanese guidelines prohibit nuclear facilities above active faults.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. fell 1.4 percent and Kansai Electric Power Co. shed 3.7 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.2 percent to 22,322.70 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.3 percent to 1,962.30. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4 percent to 4,576. Benchmarks in Singapore and Indonesia also rose while New Zealand, Taiwan and mainland China fell.

Investors also got a slight jolt after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, who has been credited with restoring confidence in Italy's economy, announced he will resign by year's end. Monti said over the weekend that he found it impossible to lead after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's party, Parliament's largest, dropped its support for the government.

Analysts fear Monti's unexpected resignation could spark a new round of Italian political turmoil and slow efforts to get one of Europe's largest economies back in shape.

Anxiety was also growing as talks drag on between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers over a way to avoid the "fiscal cliff," a series of tax hikes and spending cuts that will come into effect Jan. 1 if no agreement is in place to cut the budget deficit.

Stocks inched higher on Wall Street after a strong sales report by McDonald's boosted confidence in the consumer spending in the world's largest economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.1 percent to 13,169.88. The S&P rose 0.03 percent to 1,418.55. The Nasdaq composite index rose 0.3 percent to 2,986.96.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was up 6 cents to $85.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 37 cents to finish at $85.56 per barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

In currencies, the euro rose to $1.2948 from $1.2938 in New York on Monday. The dollar rose slightly to 82.35 yen from 82.33 yen.

Read More..

Japan's LDP, partner on track for big election win: surveys

TOKYO/TAKATSUKI (Reuters) - Conservative former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's opposition Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) and its smaller ally are heading for a resounding victory in Sunday's election, winning more than 300 seats in parliament's 480-member lower house, media surveys showed on Tuesday.

Abe, 58, who resigned abruptly as premier in 2007 after a troubled year in office, is pushing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for more powerful monetary stimulus and promises to boost public works to rev up a stagnant economy.

Abe, the grandson of a wartime cabinet minister who became prime minister after World War Two, also favors a tough stance against China in a territorial row and loosening the limits of Japan's 65-year-old pacifist constitution on the military.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which surged to power in 2009 for the first time, could get fewer than 80 seats at the election, the papers said.

The conservative Sankei, whose poll was based on a smaller sample, said an LDP-New Komeito party coalition could even win the two-thirds majority needed to over-ride the upper house, where no party has a majority and which can block legislation.

That could potentially break the political deadlock that has plagued successive governments since 2007. But the paper warned that almost 40 percent of those surveyed had not decided how to vote.

DISILLUSIONED VOTERS

Many voters have become disillusioned with the ruling Democrats who promised to break the "iron triangle" of cozy ties between big business, bureaucrats and lawmakers, nurtured during the LDP's nearly unbroken half a century rule.

But while voters are returning to the long-dominant LDP, there is little tangible enthusiasm for Japan's main opposition.

"I feel betrayed by the DPJ which promised to change so much, but achieved so little. They came across as immature, disorganized and ineffective," said Junko Makita, 59, a housewife in Takatsuki, a city of 360,000 just outside western metropolis of Osaka.

"That said, I'm not putting my hopes up too high for the LDP either, but at least they are more experienced," she said.

Takatsuki is a microcosm of Japan's fragmented politics, where a DPJ incumbent is fighting a losing battle against a well known local doctor on the LDP's list and a young candidate from the right-leaning Japan Restoration Party.

The area is the power base for the Japan Restoration Party, founded by outspoken Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, and polls suggest it could capture as many as 50 seats after it joined forces with an octogenarian nationalist Shintaro Ishihara.

A solid LDP-New Komeito lower house majority would make any formal coalition with the new Restoration party less likely, but a strong result could make it a force to contend with in future.

BANK OF JAPAN UNDER PRESSURE

Reviving Asia's second largest economy, which is slipping into its fourth recession since 2000, is a major election issue and has seen hawkish Abe pressure the BOJ for "unlimited" easing to achieve a 2 percent inflation, double the bank's target.

"I'm graduating next year, so I want politicians to boost our economy, particularly companies like Panasonic or Sharp which are in a very bad shape," said Takashi Nishida, 21, electronics student at Kyoto's Ritsumeikan University.

Japan's central bank will likely ease monetary policy next week, sources say, as looming risks such as the potential fallout from the U.S. fiscal cliff and weak Chinese growth cloud the outlook for an economy already seen as in recession.

The most likely option is for the central bank to expand its asset-buying and lending program, currently at 91 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion), by another 5-10 trillion yen, at the meeting on December 19-20, sources familiar with its thinking have said.

For now, many in the central bank want to hold off on any new initiatives unless the U.S. Federal Reserve, which holds its policy-setting meeting this week, surprises markets with a bigger-than-expected stimulus and triggers a sharp yen rise.

Abe has also tapped a nationalist sentiment in Japan to win voters and has promised to get tougher with Beijing in a territorial row and to loosen the pacifist constitution.

The Philippines said on Monday that a stronger Japan would act as a counterbalance to the military rise of China, something that is worrying smaller Asian nations as territorial disputes heat up in the region.

Right-leaning parties' tough talk resonates with many voters, after a simmering dispute with China over a chain of East China Sea islets flared up earlier this year, culminating in anti-Japanese protests and boycotts of Japanese products.

"The most important thing is to show that Japan has its voice, show to the world what is our stance" said Isao Habe, 56, a manager at an electronics maker in Takatsuki, who plans to vote for the LDP candidate.

"I want the government to be more assertive."

Revising the pacifist constitution would require a two-thirds majority in both houses as well as a majority in a public referendum, but changes to how it is interpreted are easier to accomplish.

Read More..

2013 rings in more dovish Fed and maybe some dissent

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve  may tip toward doing even more to boost the U.S. economy in 2013 as two outspoken advocates for a super-easy monetary stance rotate into voting spots on its policy panel.

The annual shuffle of voters also raises the possibility of more dissents, analysts said, but not enough to offset the small but noticeable dovish shift.

Incoming voters Charles Evans, who leads the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, and Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed have argued that the central bank needs to go beyond its already aggressive easing of monetary policy to bring down unemployment.

They are also at the forefront of efforts to adopt numerical thresholds for unemployment and inflation that would underscore the Fed's willingness to keep policy easy for a long, long time.

The new lineup, which will be in place for the Fed's first meeting of 2013 in late January, "tilts slightly more in favor of further accommodation," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays, in New York.

The Fed has kept interest rates near zero since December 2008 and expects to keep them there until at least mid-2015. It has also bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities and is expected to announce more purchases on Wednesday after a two-day meeting.

Next year, it will wrestle with the question of just how far it should go.

GEORGE TO TAKE UP BATON OF DISSENT?

Each January, four regional Fed bank presidents rotate into voting spots on the policy committee and four rotate out.

This year, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker made his discomfort with the central bank's easy stance known with dissents at every meeting.

He will be rotating off the voting roster, as will Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who next year will cast her first votes since succeeding Thomas Hoenig in the job in 2011, could take up the baton of hawkish dissent.

While she has been less openly critical of current policy than Hoenig, who used all of his final votes to dissent against Fed easing, George has sounded a couple of skeptical notes.

"Only time will tell if George will assume the role of 2013 voting hawk," said Neal Soss, Credit Suisse economist in New York.

St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard, who has said he would have voted against the central bank's decision in September to embark on a new round of asset purchases, is also joining the voting ranks. In his last go-round in 2010, he voted with the consensus at every meeting.

"Bullard is a wild card, and so that might make the votes a little less predictable than they are in the current lineup," said JPMorgan's Michael Feroli.

And Evans could cast a dovish dissent - as he did during his last voting stint in 2011 - should the Fed pare asset purchases too early for his taste, some analysts said.

To be sure, the economic recovery does not appear to be gaining enough traction for the Fed to cut back any time soon.

In a Reuters poll on Friday, the median forecast of 32 economists was for the Fed to buy a total of $515 billion of Treasuries as part of the expanded purchase program expected to be announced this week.

"Given the environment that we are looking at ... I don't know that any of the hawks will have a strong argument because growth is likely to be slowing, and inflation is cooling," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo, in Charlotte, N.C.

WILL EVANS, ROSENGREN HELP ON THRESHOLDS?

Meanwhile, officials continue to debate whether to adopt numerical thresholds for unemployment and inflation to help guide their decision on when to eventually raise rates.

Both Evans and Rosengren have said the Fed should keep rates low until the jobless rate falls to at least 6.5 percent unless inflation heats up. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent in November from 7.9 percent in October, but only because thousands of Americans stopped looking for work.

It is unclear how far Evans' and Rosengren's status as voters will nudge the needle for the committee as a whole, although 33 of 55 economists polled on Friday said the Fed would eventually adopt thresholds.

"Thresholds will be a front-burner issue and will likely get done in 2013," said Eric Stein, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, in Boston.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chair Janet Yellen have both already indicated support for the threshold idea.

But Bernanke probably would want broad backing for such a significant change in the Fed's policy framework. When officials adopted an inflation goal of 2 percent this past January, all regional Fed bank chiefs were afforded a say.

"To make credible long-run programs, (Bernanke) wants a broader consensus, not just the voting members," said former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Read More..

Brent eases to near $107 as US, Italy rattle investors

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude edged down towards $107 a barrel on Tuesday as a stalemate over fiscal talks in the United States and political uncertainty in Italy rattled investors, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported prices.

Investors shied away from riskier assets as U.S. politicians squabbled over ways to reduce debt, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti's decision to resign early raised fears that the country could stray from economic reforms needed to steer itself out of the financial crisis.

Brent crude edged down 3 cents to $107.30 a barrel by 0506 GMT. U.S. crude was at $85.63, up 7 cents.

"There is a bearish tone in the market going into the year end with nothing much to support oil prices except geopolitical risks," Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp said,

"The focus is on the fiscal cliff," he said, adding that the bad news from Italy also weighed on oil prices.

More talks were held on Monday between the White House and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's office to break the "fiscal cliff" stalemate, although neither side showed any public signs that they were ready to give ground.

In Italy, borrowing costs soared and share prices tumbled on Monday as the markets took fright at Monti's announcement that he will step down early.

The news came just as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Monday that economic growth in Italy and China may be about to turn up.

China's crude imports rose in November while refinery runs reached a record of more than 10.1 million barrels a day (bpd), although foreign trade data disappointed.

"Despite China's improving economy, prices could come under some pressure today as fresh uncertainty over Europe tempers sentiment," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Yet, tensions in the Middle East that threaten to disrupt oil supply have supported prices throughout the year. The region is facing fresh unrest in Egypt, fighting in Syria and global pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear programme.

"The geopolitical risk is higher than ever," Nunan said. "It's going to be nasty when Damascus falls."

Traders also will be keeping a close watch on any changes in OPEC supply as the group meets in Vienna on Wednesday, while scouring weekly U.S. oil inventories data to be released over the next two days.

"The only thing that could come out of OPEC would be bearish as most people agree they have to address oversupply next year," Nunan said.

OPEC members collectively are producing about 1 million barrels a day of crude more than needed, swelling oil stocks at a time of weak demand, Iranian OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said.

The 12-member group is expected to stick with its target of 30 million bpd when it meets on Wednesday.

In the United States, commercial crude oil stockpiles were forecast to have fallen last week amid high refinery demand, while gasoline inventories were expected to rise, a preliminary Reuters poll of five analysts showed.

Read More..